How much the S&P 500 can gain or lose depending on how long you hold it, across every possible period since 1928.
Key findings
- With dividends reinvested (Jan 1988–Oct 2026), the S&P 500 lost money in 16% of 1-year periods, 7% of 10-year periods and none of the 20-year periods.
- Excluding dividends and going back to 1928, the worst 20-year period returned −3.6% a year (Aug 1929 – Aug 1949) and no 30-year period was negative.
- Over a single year, returns ranged from −43.3% to +56.4%: the shorter the period, the wider the range.
How we calculated it
We took the S&P 500's monthly closes and, for each month, calculated the compound annual return of investing that month and holding for 1, 5, 10, 20 or 30 years. That gives every possible overlapping period, not just calendar years. We use two series that are never mixed: the index with dividends reinvested (from 1988) and the price index without dividends (from 1928), which understates the real return.
With dividends reinvested (Jan 1988 – Oct 2026)
| Holding period | Periods | Worst (annual) | Median (annual) | Best (annual) | Periods with a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | 454 | −43.3% Feb 2008 – Feb 2009 | 14.4% | 56.4% Mar 2020 – Mar 2021 | 16.3% |
| 5 years | 406 | −6.6% Feb 2004 – Feb 2009 | 12.3% | 28.6% Dec 1994 – Dec 1999 | 12.1% |
| 10 years | 346 | −3.4% Feb 1999 – Feb 2009 | 10.3% | 19.5% Aug 1990 – Aug 2000 | 6.9% |
| 20 years | 226 | 4.8% Mar 2000 – Mar 2020 | 8.6% | 11.5% May 2006 – May 2026 | 0.0% |
| 30 years | 106 | 9.3% Mar 1990 – Mar 2020 | 10.4% | 11.1% Nov 1994 – Nov 2024 | 0.0% |
Without dividends, since 1928
| Holding period | Periods | Worst (annual) | Median (annual) | Best (annual) | Periods with a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | 1,175 | −70.1% Jun 1931 – Jun 1932 | 9.9% | 146.3% Jun 1932 – Jun 1933 | 30.4% |
| 5 years | 1,127 | −22.0% Aug 1929 – Aug 1934 | 8.0% | 29.5% May 1932 – May 1937 | 19.8% |
| 10 years | 1,067 | −9.9% Aug 1929 – Aug 1939 | 7.5% | 16.8% Aug 1990 – Aug 2000 | 11.2% |
| 20 years | 947 | −3.6% Aug 1929 – Aug 1949 | 7.1% | 14.4% Mar 1980 – Mar 2000 | 3.5% |
| 30 years | 827 | 2.1% Aug 1929 – Aug 1959 | 7.3% | 10.5% Jun 1970 – Jun 2000 | 0.0% |
Every 10-year period, one by one
The chart shows the annual return of every 10-year period, dated by the month it ends. The worst were those that included the 1929 crash (ending between 1937 and 1941) and those ending in 2009, in the middle of the financial crisis.
What it means for you
With US data, time matters as much as the average return: over one year almost any result is possible, while over 20 years the range narrows a lot. That does not guarantee the future, nor does it apply to other markets or to a single company, but it helps you decide which money to invest: the money you can leave alone for many years.